Аннотация
About 1 billion cases of seasonal influenza are registered annually in the world, including 3-5 million cases of severe form of the disease. Every year up to 650.000 people die from SARS/influenza. The purpose of the study: to make a forecast of possible activation of SARS/influenza viruses on the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the epidemic season 2023-2024. Methods. The analysis of statistical data of subtypes of the virus type A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) for the epidemic season 2022-2023 was carried out. Based on the analysis of the previous season, a forecast of possible activation of SARS/influenza viruses in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the epidemic season 2023-2024 was made. Results. According to the results of laboratory monitoring of SARS/influenza in the epidemic season of 2022-2023, the circulation of all three types of influenza viruses was noted, but their share in the etiological characteristics of the season was different. Since the beginning of the epidemic season influenza B viruses have been dominant - its share in the structure of positive cases reached maximum values from 40 to 49 weeks, the total share for the epidemic season was 66.2% (n=1613). The activation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses was noted in the second half of the epidemic season from week 46, this type of virus accounted for 32.5% (n=792) of positive cases during the epidemic season. The circulation of influenza virus subtype A (H3N2) was noted by isolated cases everywhere, during the epidemic season the proportion of positive cases for them was only 1.3% (n=30). Conclusions. In the upcoming autumn-winter season of 2023-2024 parallel circulation of subtypes of type A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) virus with the addition of virus B, and with a higher probability the dominance of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus among other influenza viruses is predicted.