Аннотация
Purpose of the research is to develop an interval forecast of changes in the indicators of gross crop production from the volume of sown area based on the construction of a paired linear regression model and analysis of changes in the total output of crop production depending on the volume of sown areas of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2000-2021. Methodology. In this work, we used methods for constructing and analyzing a paired linear regression model, methods for constructing precise and interval forecasts using a paired regression model. Originality / value of the research lies in the possibility of using predictive calculations of the gross production of crop production from the volume of sown area while improving the state policy of restructuring agricultural land for the effective use of the potential of land resources and increasing the volume of crop production in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The results of the study contribute to the development of methodological foundations for calculating the volume of crop production in the Republic of Kazakhstan in various categories of farms. Findings. This paper analyzes the change in the gross output of crop production and sown areas of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2000-2021 based on the construction of a paired linear regression model. The quality of the model was assessed, the interval for the lower and upper limits of the forecast of changes in the gross output of crop production from the volume of the sown area was calculated. An economic interpretation of the calculated data obtained as a result of building a linear pair regression model is given. The research confirms the importance of a reasonable approach to the development of a rational structure of sown areas, based on the strategic task of ensuring food security in the Republic of Kazakhstan.