Аннотация
Abstract Taking into account local peculiarities of the territory, scenarios of changes in temperature and precipitation for the future up to 2040 -2050 are built. On this basis, estimated probable change in runoff due to expected climate changes. The scenarios are based on physical laws, consisting in the presence of links between climatic fluctuations contained in time series of temperature and precipitation and climatic fluctuations in the indices of the general circulation of the atmosphere, identified on the basis of harmonic analysis. It is shown that one should expect stabilization of temperature in the region and even some decrease in it with a constant amount of precipitation. This will positively affect the surface runoff.