Аннотация
Background Associations between high temperatures and cerebrovascular mortality have been observed in many European settings. However, the evidence from rapidly developing settings particularly with arid and semiarid climate is almost non-existent. Objectives To study associations between maximum apparent air temperature and daily counts of deaths from cerebrovascular causes in Astana - a rapidly developing capital of Kazakhstan. Methods Daily counts of deaths cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69) among adults 18 years and older in Astana, Kazakhstan during warm periods (1 April – 30 September) in 2000-2001 and 2006-2010, were obtained from the City Registry Office. Associations between cerebrovascular mortality and maximum apparent temperature (average for lags 0-3) during the warm period were studied using first order autoregressive Poisson regression models controlling for wind speed and effects of month, year, weekends and holidays. Analyses were stratified by gender. Results Daily counts of deaths from cerebrovascular diseases were significantly associated with the maximum apparent air temperature among women: an increase in temperature by 1°C was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths by 1.9% (95% CI: 0.4-3.5). No significant associations were observed among men. Conclusions The effects of temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in Astana, Kazakhstan, was limited to women. Higher temperatures were associated with higher mortality from cerebrovascular diseases. Factors behind this association warrant further research with a further going aim to develop strategies to mitigate the effects on climate change on population health. Key messages Higher temperatures are associated with higher mortality from cerebrovascular diseases. The effect of temperature on cerebrovascular deaths seem to be limited to women.