Some aspects of the "dutch disease" in the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

2021

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DOI 10.52821/2224-5561-2021-2-22-41
Достоверность данных 70 средняя
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Аннотация

The fundamental structural transformations that have taken place in the country's economy have led to a deterioration in the quality of the economic system and increased dependence of the national economy on the conjuncture of world markets. Our previous research was concerned with determining what triggered the change in the structure of the economy, how effective the changes were, and what changes in sector proportions they led to. In this article, we tried to analyze whether we are facing the consequences of the "Dutch disease", which led to structural transformations in the economy. The purpose of the study is to confirm our assumption that the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan is subject to the "Dutch disease". Methodology of the study. The authors relied on the cointegration analysis of time series using the Engle-Granger tests, the analysis of the stationarity of the Dickey-Fuller methods in order to determine cointegration, to assess the degree of interrelation between the values of mining and manufacturing production volumes on GDP indicators, as evidence of the presence of "Dutch disease". Originality / value of the research. The originality and value of the study lies on the fact that the authors tried to analyze the economy for the presence of "Dutch disease" in the economy of Kazakhstan using time series analysis methods. Findings. There is an assumption that the economy of Kazakhstan has certain symptoms and signs of the "Dutch disease", but it is not possible to say unequivocally that it was the main catalyst for structural changes, due to the fact that we could not prove the existence of a negative relationship between the growth rates of the mining industry and the manufacturing industry.