Аннотация
The concept of elasticity, which can be defined as the sensitivity of long‐term streamflow to changes in climate, is particularly useful as an initial estimate of the impact of climate change on land and water resources projects. This study examines this assumption using long historical annual temperature ( T ), precipitation ( P ), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and streamflow data from the Ile‐Balkhash basin. Furthermore, in order to evaluate the impact of climatic variation on streamflow, the trends of streamflow were explored using the Mann–Kendall method. Based on the annual average climate variables, the climate elasticity in the Ile‐Balkhash river basin was estimated as follows: precipitation elasticity ( ε P ) ≈ 2.5, temperature elasticity ( ε T ) ≈ −1.5, PET elasticity ( ε PET ) ≈ −1.5, and total elasticity ( ε tot ) ≈ 1.6. The results demonstrated that the mean sensitivity coefficients of streamflow to precipitation were approximately ≈2.5 indicating that 10% increase in precipitation would result in a 25% increase or decrease in streamflow, respectively. Consequently, it was determined that the annual streamflow was susceptible to annual precipitation for all the basin under examination. Furthermore, the results of the partial correlation analysis show that temperature and precipitation affect some river basins in the region. In the Zhetysu Alatau basin, these factors have a negative effect, while in the Ile Alatau basin, they may have a positive effect, largely due to glacier melting. The findings from this study can serve as a guide for the enhancement and regulation of using local water resources.