Аннотация
Introduction The Arctic has become a space for global interaction, serving not only as an arena for rivalry but also as a target for environmental initiatives. The growing interest of extra-regional powers, including India, increases the importance of research on the strategies and policies of non-Arctic states in the Arctic region. Considering and analyzing India’s experience and policies is essential for understanding how countries in the Global South and Asia are shaping and implementing their models of participation in the management of global common resources. The purpose of this article is to analyze and identify forecast scenarios for India’s Arctic strategy and policy, as well as benchmarking scenarios and identifying constraints and opportunities. Methods The study uses scenario analysis to explore several potential directions for India’s Arctic policy and their broader strategic implications. Along with examining the climate agenda, strategic forecasting is applied, expressing the diversity and multidimensionality of the research approaches. Results Three scenarios were developed, among them deepening Arctic cooperation, which involves India acting as a climate partner inscribed in multilateral governance and scientific diplomacy; polar competition, in which India cautiously aligns with Russia to secure access to energy resources amid geopolitical fragmentation; and internal constraints, in which domestic priorities limit India’s Arctic ambitions, turning it into a passive observer. Discussion The results of this study can be useful and applied in the development, implementation, and adjustment of Arctic strategies, national Arctic research programs, energy diplomacy, and scenario modeling of the state’s foreign policy activities. The results and conclusions can also be useful for research institutions and international organizations to consider uncertainties and risks and develop long-term solutions.