Аннотация
In 2016-2025, retail beef prices in Kazakhstan nearly tripled - from 1,245 to 3,515 tenge per kilogram (by about 28% in constant 2016 prices) - despite a twofold growth in the beef cattle herd. The aim of the study is to identify and quantitatively assess the factors driving domestic beef prices in Kazakhstan. The study uses 2016-2025 data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan on beef production, cattle population, retail prices, the consumer price index and foreign trade. Correlation, dynamic and structural analysis were applied; prices were examined in nominal and real terms. Beef production per head of beef cattle more than halved - from 212 to 104 kg - while beef exports grew almost twentyfold. In nominal terms, both indicators are closely related to retail prices (r 3 = -0.95; r 1 = 0.96), but after removing inflation all pairwise relationships become statistically insignificant (|r'| < 0.57); for net exports the link is even weaker (r 4 = 0.80; r' 4 = 0.17). Correlation does not by itself prove causality. The average export price (about 4 U SD/kg) is below the domestic retail price (about 7 U SD/kg), although premium shipments are exported at up to 14 USD/kg. About three quarters of nominal price growth is attributable to inflation, while herd growth does not translate into a proportional increase in supply on the organized market, likely due to herd rejuvenation, live cattle exports and on-farm consumption in household farms. The role of beef exports is limited: Kazakhstan was a net importer of beef until 2022, and in 2025 net exports amounted to only 3.7% of production.