Аннотация
The agro-industrial complex is one of the key sectors of Kazakhstan’s economy, ensuring food security, rural employment and the development of regional investment potential. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of financial instruments in stimulating investment activity in Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial complex and to develop recommendations for improving regionally differentiated investment policy. The study is based on regional panel data for 17 regions and cities of national importance in Kazakhstan for 2015-2025. Descriptive statistics, comparative regional analysis, fixed-effect panel regression model, Haussmann test, diagnostics of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation are used as methods. The dependent variable is investment in agriculture, while the key explanatory variables include government subsidies, concessional lending, financing through development institutions, infrastructure development, and digitalization. Regression analysis confirmed a statistically significant positive impact of subsidies (β = 0.32; p < 0.01), concessional lending (β = 0.27; p < 0.01), infrastructure (β = 0.21; p < 0.01), financing through development institutions (β = 0.19; p < 0.01), and digitalization (β = 0.18; p < 0.01) on investment activity. The results show that subsidies and credit resources have the strongest positive effect on investment activity. At the same time, the negative coefficient on the quadratic subsidy term indicates an inverted U-shaped relationship, suggesting that excessive government support may reduce investment efficiency. The findings support a transition from subsidy-dominated support toward a mixed financing model based on targeted subsidies, concessional lending, guarantees, blended finance, infrastructure modernization, and digital platforms.