Аннотация
Debris flows and sediment floods in the mountains of Southern Kazakhstan regularly cause significant damage. They impact economic facilities in the basins of many rivers: the Sairam, Badam, Teris, Keles, Ugam, Baldybrek, and Tamdy. The flows that occurred were classified as rain and showers. The relevance of studying this region is due to the paucity of research and the small number of available publications. In the context of climate change, the analysis of meteorological factors requires regular updating. The aim of this research is to assess the climatic conditions of mudflow formation and their trends in the XXst century. It was determined that the distribution of extreme precipitation events is related to the location of mountain ranges relative to the leading atmospheric flows. Extreme debris flow-prone precipitation events are recorded in the central parts of the Talas and Kyrgyz Alatau mountains and the Karatau range. This is where the main debris flow centers are located. An increase in the amount of one-time precipitation with altitude is noted. An increase in average air temperature and annual precipitation in the XXIst century compared to XXth-century norms is noted. However, there is no trend in variability in extreme air temperatures and daily precipitation. This suggests a random, stochastic nature to the development of debris flow-forming conditions. Climate maps were created, which are an important step in the development of comprehensive GIS maps of debris flow danger and debris flow risk in the mountains of Southern Kazakhstan.