Аннотация
This study examines the strategic barriers and opportunities shaping international academic collaboration management between Kazakhstani universities and higher education institutions in Peru, Brazil, and Argentina, with particular attention to dual-degree ecosystems, academic mobility governance, and research collaboration models. The research employs a mixed-methods comparative design integrating institutional-comparative analysis of higher education governance frameworks, bibliometric analysis of co-authored publications, structured case-study analysis of four national contexts, and scenario-based economic-mathematical modelling. The analysis reveals weak institutional connectivity between Kazakhstani and Latin American universities, the near-absence of bilateral cooperation frameworks, marginal joint publication output, and persistent culturally embedded divergences in higher-education governance and quality-assurance methodology. A central hypothesis on the adaptive probability of governance harmonisation is formulated and tested against comparative evidence from the four countries. A ten-year scenario forecast (2027–2036) is developed across optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic trajectories, and an original economic-mathematical model simulates the realistic trajectory of partnership intensity, joint publications, and virtual mobility participation. The findings indicate that governance harmonisation between Kazakhstan and the three Latin American comparator countries is plausible but conditional on dedicated bilateral-framework investment, virtual collaboration infrastructure, and targeted research consortia; the paper offers concrete recommendations for academic collaboration governance.