Аннотация
Accurate and comprehensive analysis of factors influencing the economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan becomes the basis for decision-making in the modern global economic system. Since this process often involves subjective judgments of decision makers, there is a need to implement objective and statistically sound approaches. This study proposes an intelligent information system (IIS) module to optimize the solution of such complex issues in the field of economics and reduce the level of subjectivity in decision-making. The proposed IIS module operates on the basis of accurate and reliable primary statistical data. In particular, the system is designed to process the World Bank indicators on the gross domestic product (GDP) of Kazakhstan at current prices for the period 1990-2024 and conduct intelligent analysis of these data. The system is based on time series modeling methods: the cumulative average model and scenario modeling. The cumulative average model estimates the limits of GDP growth, and scenario modeling describes various directions of economic development (minimum, alternative and optimistic scenarios). The instability index was determined and the risk level of economic development trajectories was assessed. All results are presented visually using visualization tools.