Vector Autoregression-Based Assessment of Communication Loss Risk in Urban eVTOL and UAV Operations

IEEE Access, 2026

Полный текст Открытый доступ: Gold Метаданные (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.1109/access.2026.3690353
Достоверность данных 70 средняя
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Аннотация

This study identifies increasing urbanization and population growth in large cities as key contributors to chronic overload of ground transportation infrastructure, longer travel times, and higher air pollution levels, with previous mitigation efforts yielding limited success. This study argues that these challenges can be addressed by developing urban air mobility (UAM) through electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems. However, for their integration in metropolitan transportation systems, stringent requirements for reliable onboard communication and navigation systems are required. eVTOL and UAV operations at low and ultralow altitudes in dense urban environments occur in complex electromagnetic environments characterized by a high concentration of radio frequency (RF) radiation sources, considerably increasing the likelihood of radio communication loss and control channel degradation. Communication risks cannot be assessed independently because they result from interactions between multiple interdependent factors. Hence, this study adopts a risk-based approach, analyzing the sources of RF interference in urban environments. The findings indicate that limited availability of alternative navigation methods, along with strong dependence on satellite-based systems, substantially increases the criticality of RF interference in dense urban environments. The study justifies the use of a combined methodological framework to quantitatively assess communication loss risk during eVTOL and UAV operations, emphasizing the applicability of the framework within UAM traffic management systems. This framework enables a systematic consideration of the urban electromagnetic environment, flight altitude profiles, and onboard system characteristics. The results indicate that effective mitigation of loss of communication (LoC) risks during eVTOL and UAV operations in megacities require an integrated approach based on aircraft, infrastructure, and airspace and traffic management. These interdependent pillars serve as the foundation for UAM implementation roadmaps for megacities. Accordingly, the study presents an algorithm for constructing a UAM development roadmap to support the deployment of eVTOL and UAV operations, particularly air taxi services, in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Its implementation can reduce RF interference and mitigate LoC, thereby enhancing overall flight safety in densely populated urban areas.