Аннотация
The rapid growth of Internet of Things (IoT) devices is accompanied by increasingly sophisticated security threats, including DDoS attacks, brute-force authentication attempts, and large-scale packet flooding. Traditional statistical methods for anomaly detection exhibit low robustness to noise and fail to account for the dynamic nature of IoT traffic. This results in a higher rate of false positives and reduced accuracy in attack identification. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to IoT traffic anomaly detection consisting of three stages: preliminary filtering of suspicious packets using a modified Z-score adjusted for sample size; adaptive probabilistic attack risk assessment based on a Bayesian classifier with a weighting function that amplifies the impact of significant deviations; final classification using an ensemble of models (Random Forest, SVM, and LSTM), which ensures robustness to noise and enables the identification of nonlinear dependencies in the data. Experimental evaluation on the UNSW-NB15 dataset, which includes both normal traffic and diverse attack scenarios, demonstrated that the proposed method achieved Precision = 89.1 %, Recall = 90.3 %, and F1-score = 89.9 %. The best results were observed in the analysis of message interval anomalies (up to 92 % accuracy), confirming the effectiveness of temporal features. The method outperformed classical algorithms (Rosner Test, Holt- Winters) and achieved comparable accuracy to autoencoder while requiring significantly fewer computational resources. The hybrid architecture enables adaptation to diverse attack types and reduces false alarms through the combination of statistical filtering and ensemble classification. Its noise resilience and low computational complexity make the method suitable for deployment in resource-constrained IoT environments. Future research directions include the integration of federated learning for decentralized anomaly detection and the use of self-adaptive neural architectures for predicting complex attack scenarios.