Аннотация
In the context of the transition to an innovation-driven economy and increasing demands for sustainable agricultural development, the effectiveness of innovation financing becomes particularly relevant. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of innovation financing on innovation activity in Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector, using econometric modeling and controlling for government support and labor productivity. The methodological framework includes descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, econometric modeling using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, and scenario analysis. The empirical database is based on statistical data for the period 2015–2025. The econometric analysis shows that innovation financing has the strongest impact (β = 2.85), while government support demonstrates a statistically significant but weaker effect (β = 1.76). Labor productivity also has a positive influence (β = 0.09), confirming the interdependence between technological development and production efficiency. The results of the correlation analysis confirm a strong relationship between innovation activity and productivity (r = 0.91) and between financing and innovation activity (r = 0.88). The findings show that innovation financing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of innovation in agriculture. Its effectiveness depends on the interaction with government support mechanisms, productivity growth, and institutional conditions. The study contributes to the development of the theory of innovation financing by demonstrating the nonlinear and cumulative nature of the relationship between investment and innovation activity and by emphasizing the need for an integrated approach to financial policy in the agricultural sector.