Аннотация
This article presents a study on estimating the effectiveness of occupational safety and health (OSH) cost accounting and analysis systems at the enterprise level using statistical and modeling methods. The research adapts approaches previously applied in modeling social processes to the OSH domain, including the construction of empirical dependencies, selection of functional forms (linear, exponential, logarithmic, power, rational), and parameter estimation through the least squares method. Statistical data on OSH expenditures, workplace incidents, and risk factors were analyzed to identify functional relationships between costs and outcomes, such as reduced accident rates and improved productivity. Scenario forecasting was applied to develop pessimistic and optimistic projections based on Wald’s criterion, allowing for a more robust evaluation of cost efficiency. The results demonstrate both successful practices and problematic aspects, offering statistically grounded recommendations for optimizing OSH cost accounting systems. The findings are expected to be of practical value for managers, OSH and risk management specialists, and researchers, contributing to evidence-based strategies for enhancing workplace safety and efficiency.