Аннотация
Equine herpesvirus type 1 (EHV-1) is a dangerous viral disease in horses characterized by a wide range of clinical manifestations, such as rhinopneumonia, abortions, neonatal death, and myeloencephalopathy. In many countries of the world, including Kazakhstan, it brings significant economic losses to horse breeding. In the period from 2017 to 2024, 34 outbreaks of EHV-1 were recorded in Kazakhstan. The purpose of this study is to identify socio –demographic, environmental and transport factors associated with the presence of the virus in the administrative districts of Kazakhstan and develop a risk map. Modeling was carried out based on data on the horse population (2411 farms, density 0-49.8 heads/km2) and EHV-1 cases (34 outbreaks). Horse population density turned out to be one of the lowest important variables in the model. According to the results of the study, infection can be prevented by vaccinating horses and strengthening biosafety measures in areas with a high risk of spreading the virus. In addition, the use of such maps will allow developing effective strategies in the management of horse breeding in Kazakhstan, which will reduce economic costs and increase the stability of the industry. The resulting risk map highlights the regions where the virus is most likely to occur: the northern, central and southwestern regions with medium and high horse population density, dominated by steppe and Meadow landscapes. These results can serve as the basis for further study of spatial samplesof the EHV-1 virus and the strengthening of Veterinary Control and preventive measures, and therefore contribute to the sustainable development of horse breeding.