Аннотация
This study applies the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model Kazakhstan’s national energy flows across 2021-2023 using official Fuel and Energy Balance (FEB) data. The LEAP-KZ model is structured into three calibrated modules: energy transformation, final energy demand, and non-energy use. The model ensures energy mass-balance across sectors and time, enabling consistent tracking of input, conversion, and final consumption. Sankey diagrams generated from LEAP outputs provide a visual representation of energy flows, where node width corresponds to terajoule magnitude, enabling rapid identification of transformation losses and fuel-path dependencies. Results reveal a continued dominance of fossil fuels, with transformation input reaching 2,578 PJ in 2023 - driven by crude oil, coal, and natural gas. CHP plants and oil refineries contributed over $1,270 \mathrm{PJ}$ annually to secondary energy production. The industrial sector remained the largest energy consumer, dominated by metallurgy and chemicals, though total industrial demand declined by $\sim 15 \%$ over the period. In contrast, transport energy use rose by 25%, and residential and commercial sectors showed moderate growth. Crude oil exports accounted for a major share of primary supply, maintaining Kazakhstan’s role as a net energy exporter. Overall, the model identifies Kazakhstan’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels, emerging shifts in sectoral energy use, and key inefficiencies in transformation - insights that can inform policy design for achieving the country’s 2060 carbon neutrality goals. By integrating LEAP’s structured energy accounting with Sankey-based flow diagnostics, this study provides not only historical insight but also a scalable modeling framework for fossil fuel-intensive economies.