Аннотация
The formation of avalanche risk in mountainous regions is significantly influenced by a complex interplay of natural factors, including slope insolation and albedo. This study investigates the impact of insolation, surface reflectivity (albedo), and their relationship with other climatic parameters, such as temperature and snow cover, on the development of avalanche risk across different slope aspects (north, south, east, and west). Using remote sensing data (MODIS, ERA5-Land, CHIRPS) and a digital elevation model, a multi-year (2000–2024) analysis of changes in snow cover, temperature, and albedo during the winter period was conducted. The results of the study demonstrate that slope aspect significantly affects insolation levels, which, in turn, determine the melting dynamics of snow cover and variations in avalanche risk. The study highlights key relationships between insolation, albedo, snow cover, and temperature and presents models for predicting avalanche risk. The findings can be applied to avalanche safety management and slope monitoring in the context of a changing climate.