Аңдатпа
The authors examine the necessity and relevance of using mathematical models for the digitization of criminal policy while simultaneously taking into account the results of qualitative analysis of the criminogenic situation (theoretical modeling) and using probabilistic prediction models of crime counteraction results (empirical modeling). They determine the chronological matrix of key criminogenic events of modern Russian political and economic history, which forms the basis for developing a mathematical model of predicting changes in the criminal policy. The authors conclude that contemporary criminal policy contains objective signs of manipulative character and that criminal policy decisions cannot be based on it exclusively. It is noted that the presented prediction models based on the theory of relativity allow to make verifiable quantitative evaluations of the situation in counteracting negative socio-legal phenomena and to take into account not only the latent component of these phenomena, but also the differences caused by changes in their criminal law assessment. The presented approach could be used to build a triplex system of official monitoring of criminogenic situation at the federal and regional levels based on the collection, analysis, assessment and prediction of information on criminality from three sources: criminal statistics, public opinion polls’ results, expert polls’ results. According to the authors, the creation of this system is a mandatory prerequisite for the transition from a dominantly repressive model of crime counteraction (typical for most contemporary states) to the preventive model. As the probable effectiveness of preventive model of crime counteraction could be first calculated on the basis of planned expenses and available resources and then compared with the actually achieved effectiveness of such counteraction, the state and the society could gain a considerably more effective instrument of controlling the criminal policy’s quality in comparison with the one used today, which will make it possible to ensure a gradual transition from the high cost criminal policy implemented through trial and error to the digital criminal policy based on the results of preliminary and verified calculations.