Аңдатпа
The relevance of this study stems from the growth of final energy consumption and the increasing resource burden on the economy amid expanding economic activity. The traditional model of economic growth is accompanied by increasing energy intensity and environmental risks, necessitating a transition to sustainable development. In this regard, green entrepreneurship is viewed as a key mechanism for structural economic transformation, ensuring increased resource productivity and a reduction in environmental burden without restricting economic activity. The aim of the study is to analyze the dynamics of final energy consumption and assess the role of green entrepreneurship as a driver of sustainable national economic development. The authors applied statistical time series analysis, trend testing, economic and mathematical modeling, and forecasting based on a linear trend model. The results of the study revealed a stable upward trend in energy consumption with low time series volatility and the absence of anomalous observations. The constructed trend model demonstrated high explanatory power and allowed for the formation of point and interval forecasts for the medium term. The obtained estimates indicate a continued upward trend in final energy consumption, generating sustainable demand for energy-efficient and environmentally oriented solutions. The findings demonstrate that green entrepreneurship is a systemic factor in aligning economic growth with energy and environmental constraints. Scaling up green business models helps reduce specific energy consumption, improve resource efficiency, and create competitive advantages for the national economy. Therefore, developing the green sector should be considered a strategic direction for sustainable growth.