Аңдатпа
Short-term forecasting of solar and wind power generation is critical for smart grid management but challenging due to non-stationarity and extreme generation events. This study addresses a multi-task learning problem: regression-based forecasting of power output and binary detection of extreme events defined by a quantile-based threshold (q = 0.90). A hybrid spatio-temporal model, DP-STH++, is proposed, implementing parallel causal fusion of LSTM, GRU, a causal Conv1D stack, and a lightweight causal transformer. The architecture employs regression and classification heads, while an uncertainty-weighted mechanism stabilizes multitask optimization in the regression tasks; extreme event detection performance is evaluated using AUC. Training and evaluation follow a leakage-safe protocol with chronological data processing, calendar feature integration, time-aware splitting, and training-only estimation of scaling parameters and extreme thresholds. Experimental results obtained with a one-hour forecasting horizon and a 24 h context window demonstrate that DP-STH++ achieves the best regression performance on the hold-out set (RMSE = 257.18, MAE = 174.86–287.90, MASE = 0.2438, R2 = 0.9440) and the highest extreme event detection accuracy (AUC = 0.9896), ranking 1st among all compared architectures. In time-series cross-validation, the model retains the leading position with a mean MASE = 0.3883 and AUC = 0.9709. The advantages are particularly pronounced for wind power forecasting, where DP-STH++ simultaneously minimizes regression errors and maximizes AUC = 0.9880–0.9908.