Structural transformation of the national economy of Kazakhstan under digitalisation and technological convergence

2026

Толық мәтін Ашық қол жеткізу: Gold Метадеректер (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.21003/ea.v219-04
Деректер сенімділігі 70 орташа
Бұл баға қалай есептеледі

Ол жазбаның өзінің тексерілетін белгілерінен құралады: мақаланың DOI-і бар ма, оның деректерін қанша тәуелсіз дереккөз растады, міндетті өрістер толтырылған ба және соңғы растау қаншалықты жаңа. Дереккөздер арасындағы алшақтық пен идентификатордың болмауы бағаны төмендетеді. 80-нен бастап мән жазбаның қосымша тексерусіз жарияланғанын, 60-тан 79-ға дейін — оның сенімділігі төмен күйде жарияланғанын және қолмен тексеру ұсынылатынын білдіреді. Редактор қолмен тексерген жазбаны қайта есептеу 90-нан төмен түсірмейді. Бұл — мақаланың өзіне емес, ол туралы деректерімізге берілген баға.

Аңдатпа

Introduction: This study examines how digitalisation and technological convergence have reshaped the sectoral structure of the Kazakhstani economy in 2019-2024. Despite persistent hydrocarbon dependence, information-intensive activities have grown measurably while urban-rural and inter-sectoral digital gaps have widened. Structural transformation is treated as a multi-channel process in which ICT diffusion, human capital and platform-based governance interact. Methods: Panel data from the Bureau of National Statistics, indicators from the Ministry of Digital Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the ADB experimental Digital Supply and Use Tables for 2023, and the WIPO and UN E-Government composite indices are combined. The empirical strategy comprises a shift-share decomposition of sectoral GDP, a regional digital-readiness index, and OLS regressions linking convergence outcomes to firm-level digital adoption (n = 24 regions, 2019-2024). Results: The share of the information and communication sector in GDP rose from 1.8% in 2019 to 3.3% in 2024; ICT employment increased from 99 to 187 thousand, and IT-services exports grew from USD 30 million to USD 691 million. Digital industries, by the ADB DSUT methodology, contributed 2.40% of GDP in 2023, growing at a CAGR of 15.46% over 2018-2023 against 7.88% for total GDP. Astana and Almaty city alone account for 73.1% of national ICT expenditure, while in lagging regions only 2.2-3.6% of firms employ in-house ICT specialists. Enterprise innovation activity rose marginally, from 9.6% to 11.9%. Discussion: Structural transformation is real but uneven. Convergence between ICT, manufacturing and services is visible in the two metropoles and in resource-rich regions where extractive firms invest in Industry 4.0, but is barely detectable in agricultural and small-urban areas. The dominant channel is functional thickening of services around the extractive base rather than direct substitution of output. Scientific Novelty: The paper proposes a composite metric of digital structural intensity for emerging economies that separates basic readiness, advanced adoption and convergence outcomes, applied to Kazakhstan at the regional level using the 2023 DSUT base. Practical Implications: Findings provide evidence-based input for the National Development Plan to 2029 and the Concept of Digital Transformation 2023-2029, identifying where fiscal effort and human-capital programmes yield the highest structural return – advanced digital adoption among medium-sized manufacturing firms outside the two metropoles.