Аңдатпа
Abstract Climate change has become an increasingly prominent focus of scientific investigation in recent years. Among its many anticipated impacts are accelerated global warming, altered precipitation patterns, and a heightened frequency of extreme weather events. Central Asian countries, which are characterized by arid and desert environments, are particularly vulnerable from these effects. Dryland expansion and increasing desertification risks are likely to be exacerbated by the changes in global climate. Consequently, assessing the impacts of climate change on aridity across five Central Asian countries is of high importance. This study estimates future trends in Central Asian (CA) dryland development using climate modeling. Five CMIP6 GCM simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) were selected. Considering anthropogenic influence, the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used for future projections (2041–2100), with 1981–2010 as the baseline period. Under SSP1-2.6, temperature increases remain moderate, precipitation changes in 2041–2070 are characterized by regional variations (0.1–0.2 mm/day) in northern and mountainous areas, but the overall trend remains unchanged. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the most noticeable increase in mean temperature is projected for the north (Kazakhstan)/Precipitation changes are insignificant in the northern and central plains (Kazakhstan, and parts of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan). In the southern mountainous areas (Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan), a slight increase of up to 0.5 mm/day is expected. However, in the northwest, west, and southwest of the region, precipitation is expected to decrease up to −0.18 mm/day, indicating the risk of increased aridity and desertification. The results of the aridity index (AI) indicate a decrease in wet areas and an expansion of semi-arid areas. Standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) analysis, based on SSP scenario (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), indicates an increase in drought events. The SSP1-2.6 scenario shows the smallest decrease in SPEI by the end of the century, while SSP5-8.5 shows the largest decrease in SPEI, with values approaching −3. This emphasizes the persistence of arid conditions in the South-West and the potential for extreme events. For both scenarios, the expansion of drylands will occur in a latitudinal direction, from west to east. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, no extreme dry periods are expected up to 2050. After 2051, the proportion of extreme dry periods remains lower compared to the high-emission scenarios. It is noteworthy that under both scenarios, the expansion of drylands will occur in a latitudinal direction, from west to east. The presented study can serve as a scientific basis for justifying adapted agro-climatic measures, making consolidated decisions in the use of water resources, and planning transboundary solutions for regional sustainable development in Central Asia.