Аңдатпа
Occupational injuries remain one of the most pressing socio-economic problems in the Republic of Kazakhstan. According to the International Labour Organization, annual economic losses from poor working conditions reach 4% of the global GDP. According to the Concept of Safe Labor of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2024-2030, the hidden injury rate is 11:1, which indicates a significantly higher level of accident underreporting compared to developed countries, where this ratio exceeds 1000:1. Traditional injury analysis methods based on investigating individual groups of accident causes do not account for the synergistic effect of risk factor interaction, thus reducing the forecasting accuracy. Development and verification of innovative mathematical models for forecasting occupational injuries based on the integrated cumulative risk index outperforms traditional linear models in accuracy. Official statistical data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2015-2024 was used. Accident causes were aggregated into four groups: technical, organizational, human factor, and accident-related. An integrated cumulative risk index (CRI) was developed based on normalized factor values with empirically justified weight coefficients. The correlation analysis and the second-degree polynomial regression methods were applied. A model for predicting the number of victims with R² = 0.741 and statistical significance p = 0.034 was constructed. The average forecasting error was 4.4%, which is 18% higher than for the traditional linear models. A two-stage fatality prediction model with lethality coefficient (R² = 0.700) was developed. A paradoxical positive correlation between moderate injuries and fatalities (r = 0.651) was identified. The developed models create a scientifically sound toolkit for evidence-based occupational safety and health management and can be used for scenario analysis and substantiation of occupational safety and health policy priorities within the framework of the implementation of the Concept of Safe Work of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2024–2030.