Аңдатпа
Compulsory insurance of employees against industrial accidents is an important social protection tool in Kazakhstan, but the current rates are insufficiently stable and do not cover the actual risks, which leads to financial imbalances among insurers and reduces the level of compensation for employees. The purpose of this study is to identify the reasons for the unprofitability of existing rates and to develop proposals for their modernization based on modern risk assessment methods. The study used actuarial calculations, including analysis of loss ratios, payments, and total expenses, as well as the construction of linear trends to forecast future losses. In addition, statistical modeling methods were used, including probability distributions and Markov chains, which made it possible to justify the introduction of a differentiated tariff system and a bonus-malus mechanism for enterprises depending on the level of industrial injuries. The results of the analysis showed an increase in the loss ratio from 11.87 percent in 2020 to 35.33 percent in the second quarter of 2024 and an increase in the aggregate loss ratio from 65.6 to 73.1 percent. The calculations determined a new base rate of 0.6842 percent compared to the current level of 0.59 percent, reflecting the need to revise insurance rates to ensure the financial stability of the system. A two-tier tariff model has been proposed, taking into account industry and occupational risks, as well as a bonus-malus mechanism that creates economic incentives for employers to invest in improving occupational safety and reducing the number of accidents. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the results obtained by insurers, government agencies, and employers in forming a balanced and sustainable compulsory insurance system capable of simultaneously strengthening the financial stability of the insurance market and increasing the social protection of workers.